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Sarthak Bagaria
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Chapter 1 Brownian Motion

In these notes we build the objects the rest of the book computes with. Filtrations and martingales first, then the Itô integral — which is defined by a limit that is not obviously there, so we show why it exists rather than assuming it, and find that the Itô isometry is what supplies the limit rather than merely describing it. Along the way the Stratonovich integral appears as the alternative that obeys the ordinary chain rule and is not adapted, which is the trade between geometry and predictability. The chapter ends with Itô’s lemma and the diffusions it applies to.

1.1 Stochastic Processes

Definition 1.1 (Brownian Motion).

A brownian motion is a stochastic process Wt0 such that the following properties hold:

  • -

    W0=0 with probability 1.

  • -

    WaWbN(0,|ab|) where N(m,v) is a Normal distribution with mean m and variance v.

  • -

    WaWb and WcWd are independent random variables for a>bc>d.

So the process starts at zero, moves by independent normal steps, and a step’s variance is exactly its length — which is why the path accumulates randomness at a constant, known rate.

Definition 1.2 (σ-Algebra).

A σ-algebra on a set X is a collection Σ of subsets of X such that the following properties hold:

  • -

    XΣ.

  • -

    AΣAcΣ (closed under complement)

  • -

    AiΣiAiΣ (closed under countable union)

A probability is a map Σ assigning a number to each event in Σ — so the σ-algebra is exactly the collection of events whose probability is known, and the closure axioms say that knowing an event’s probability means knowing its complement’s and any countable combination’s as well.

Definition 1.3 (Filtration).

A filtration is an indexed σ-algebra t of subsets of the probability sample space such that FaFb for ab.

So t is the information available at time t — a finer σ-algebra distinguishes more events — and the nesting condition says that information only grows: nothing is forgotten as t increases.

Definition 1.4 (Measurable Function).

Given a σ-algebra on the sample space Ω, a real-valued random variable X is -measurable if the X-inverse of any open set in is contained in i.e.

{AΩ|X(A)(a,b)}a,ba>b

So observing the value of a measurable function identifies an event already in — the set of outcomes consistent with that observation — which is what lets “know” the function’s value.

Definition 1.5 (Adapted Process).

A stochastic process Xt is adapted to filtration t if for each t, Xt is Ft measurable.

So a process adapted to t has a value at time t already implied by the information available then — nothing about Xt is still hidden from t.

Definition 1.6 (Generated Filtration).

The filtration generated by a stochastic process is the smallest filtration to which the process is adapted.

Example 1.1.

Let’s take an example of 3 unbiased coin tosses with process Xt counting the number of heads until toss t. The probability sample space Ω is

{HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT}

The filtration generated by the process is

0= {
{HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT,THH,THT,TTH,TTT},(X0=0)
}
1= {
{HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT},(X0=0,X1=1)
{THH,THT,TTH,TTT},(X0=0,X1=0)
and all unions of the above
}
2= {
{HHH,HHT},(X0=0,X1=1,X2=2)
{HTH,HTT},(X0=0,X1=1,X2=1)
{THH,THT},(X0=0,X1=0,X2=1)
{TTH,TTT},(X0=0,X1=0,X2=0)
and all unions of the above
}
3= {
{HHH},(X0=0,X1=1,X2=2,X3=3)
{HHT},(X0=0,X1=1,X2=2,X3=2)
{HTH},(X0=0,X1=1,X2=1,X3=2)
{HTT},(X0=0,X1=1,X2=1,X3=1)
{THH},(X0=0,X1=0,X2=1,X3=2)
{THT},(X0=0,X1=0,X2=1,X3=1)
{TTH}.(X0=0,X1=0,X2=0,X3=1)
{TTT},(X0=0,X1=0,X2=0,X3=0)
and all unions of the above
}
Definition 1.7 (Expectation conditional on filtration).

𝔼[X|] is the measurable random variable such that

𝔼[X 1A]=𝔼[𝔼[X|] 1A]A (1.1)

So averaging X over any event can see gives the same answer whether or not X is first replaced by its conditional expectation — 𝔼[X|] is the -measurable random variable that matches X’s average on every event can distinguish, even though it need not match X itself.

In the coin toss example above,

𝔼[X3|1](s)={2ifs{HHH,HHT,HTH,HTT}1ifs{THH,THT,TTH,TTT}
Definition 1.8 (Martingale).

A stochastic process Xt is a martingale with respect to a filtration t of the probability space (Ω,,) if

𝔼[Xa|b]=Xbforab

So a martingale’s expected future value, conditional on the present, is the present value — no drift that today’s information can see coming.

Exercise.

Show that in the coin toss example, if we had instead counted number of heads minus number of tails, Xt would have been a martingale. For example, show that 𝔼[X3|1] would have been equal to X1.

Relaxing the equality in either direction gives the two processes that drift one way on average.

Definition 1.9 (Supermartingale and submartingale).

With the same setup, Xt is a supermartingale if

𝔼[Xa|b]Xbforab,

and a submartingale if the inequality runs the other way. A martingale is both.

The names are the wrong way round for anyone reading them as a description of the paths: a supermartingale is the one that decreases in expectation. They come from potential theory, where a function u is superharmonic when its value at a point is at least its average over any surrounding sphere. Composing such a u with a Brownian motion averages it over exactly those spheres, so u(Wt) is a supermartingale precisely when u is superharmonic, and the two words describe the same inequality. In the language of chapter 3 the condition reads u0: a non-positive drift is what a supermartingale has.

Definition 1.10 (Stopping time).

A random time τ:Ω[0,] is a stopping time for the filtration t if {τt}t for every t. Whether it has already happened must be decidable from what is known at t, without looking ahead.

The first time a Brownian motion reaches a level, τa=inf{t:Wta}, is a stopping time — at any t you know whether it has happened. The last time before T that the path visits a is not, because deciding it at time t requires knowing that the path never returns. Every trading rule that can actually be followed is measurable in the first sense, which is why the condition appears wherever a strategy or an exercise decision does.

Given a stopping time, Xtτ=Xtτ is the process stopped at τ: it follows X until τ and is constant thereafter. Stopping preserves the martingale property, and it is the standard way to tame a process that is badly behaved only in the limit — the definition of a local martingale below is exactly that idea.

Theorem 1.11 (Optional stopping).

Let X be a martingale and τ a stopping time. If τ is bounded, or if {Xtτ} is uniformly integrable, then 𝔼[Xτ]=X0.

Proof.

Take first a τ with finitely many values t1<<tn=T. The whole argument is that the event {τ=ti} is known by time ti, so the martingale property may be used on it:

𝔼[XT] =i=1n𝔼[XT𝟏{τ=ti}]
=i=1n𝔼[𝔼[XTti] 1{τ=ti}] since {τ=ti}ti
=i=1n𝔼[Xti𝟏{τ=ti}] the martingale property
=𝔼[Xτ],

and 𝔼[XT]=X0 because X is a martingale. Notice what did the work. The indicator could be taken inside the conditional expectation only because it was ti measurable, and that is the definition of a stopping time — the only property of τ the calculation used. A random time that looked ahead would break the second line and nothing else.

A general bounded τT is a limit of such times. Put τn=(2nτ/2n)T, which takes finitely many values, is a stopping time because {τnk/2n}={τk/2n}, and decreases to τ. Each 𝔼[Xτn]=X0 by the case just proved, and XτnXτ almost surely by continuity of the path. The same case also identifies Xτn=𝔼[XTτn], and a family of conditional expectations of one integrable variable is uniformly integrable, so the convergence holds in L1 and the expectations pass to the limit.

In the unbounded case the hypothesis does exactly the job boundedness did. The stopped process is a martingale, so 𝔼[Xtτ]=X0 for every finite t, and XtτXτ almost surely as t on {τ<}; uniform integrability is what upgrades that to L1 and lets the expectation follow the limit. Without it the two cannot be exchanged, and the next paragraph is a case where they cannot. ∎

A finite stopping time is not enough on its own, and the gap is not a technicality. The doubling strategy of chapter 4 stops a Brownian motion at the first time it reaches $1, which happens almost surely, and collects 𝔼[Xτ]=1 from a process starting at zero. What fails is uniform integrability: the paths that have not yet reached the target are ever further below it, and the loss they carry is exactly what the expectation is missing. Ruling that out is the work done by admissibility.

Stopping also supplies the weakest useful version of the martingale property.

Definition 1.12 (Local Martingale).

A process X is a local martingale if there are stopping times τn such that each stopped process Xtτn is a martingale.

“Locally a martingale” says the process is a martingale up to a sequence of stopping times that eventually exhausts the horizon, which for many processes of interest is all one can guarantee. The gap between local and true is the same gap optional stopping left open, and it is not empty: the doubling strategy has a local martingale whose expectation moves. When the process is bounded below, though, half of the property survives.

Lemma 1.13 (A non-negative local martingale is a supermartingale).

If X0 is a local martingale then 𝔼[Xa|b]Xb for ab.

Proof.

Let τn reduce X, so that 𝔼[Xaτn|b]=Xbτn. As n the integrands converge almost surely and are non-negative, so conditional Fatou gives

𝔼[Xa|b]lim infn𝔼[Xaτn|b]=Xb.

Fatou runs in one direction only, and that is where the inequality comes from. ∎

So a non-negative local martingale can lose expectation but never gain it, and it is a true martingale exactly when it loses none. chapter 4 is about which side of that line a discounted price has to be on.

Definition 1.14 (t Brownian motion).

A Brownian motion Wt is a t Brownian motion if Wt is adapted to t and Wt+sWt is independent of t for s>0.

Remark (An t Brownian motion is a martingale with respect to filtration t).
𝔼[Wa|b] = 𝔼[WaWb|b]+𝔼[Wb|b]
= 0+𝔼[Wb|b]
= Wb

1.2 Itô Calculus

Definition 1.15 (Itô Integral).

Let Ht be a t adapted process and Wt be a t Brownian motion. The Itô integral is defined as

0tHs𝑑Ws=limni=02n1HtinΔiW

This is similar to the Riemann integral. One thing to note here is that the integrand always takes the value at the start of the interval. If we make the integrand take the the average of the values at interval endpoints, we get

Definition 1.16 (Stratonovich Integral).
0tHs𝑑Ws=limni=02n1(Htin+Hti+1n)ΔiW/2 (1.2)

The two integrals usually do not give the same results, as can be checked by repeating the calculations we do in these notes for Stratonovich integral as well.

This is the first place stochastic calculus parts company with ordinary calculus, and the reason is visible in a single algebraic step. Take Hs=Ws, so both sums are attempts at 0tW𝑑W, and look at one interval. The Stratonovich term exceeds the Itô term by

12(Wi+1+Wi)(Wi+1Wi)Wi(Wi+1Wi)=12(Wi+1Wi)2,

so summing over the partition, the gap between the two integrals is exactly half the sum of squared increments. For an ordinary differentiable function that sum vanishes as the partition refines, and the two definitions agree — which is why nobody distinguishes them in ordinary calculus. For Brownian motion it does not vanish. It converges to t.

Structure (Which integral is the geometric one).

The two integrals differ by more than a convention.

Stratonovich obeys the ordinary chain rule: dφ(X)=φ(X)dX, with no second order term. So a Stratonovich equation transforms correctly under a change of coordinates — write the same process in a new variable and the equation you get is the one you would have written directly. Itô does not: its correction term 12φ′′σ2dt depends on the coordinate chosen, so the same process has different-looking Itô equations in different variables.

That makes Stratonovich the integral of choice whenever geometry is involved — diffusions on a sphere, on a manifold of correlation matrices, on a Lie group — because there is no privileged coordinate for the equation to be written in. It makes Itô the integral of choice in finance, where there is a privileged coordinate, namely money, and where the payoff of a martingale being a martingale is worth more than coordinate freedom.

Both are used later. The point here is only that the choice is between invariance and the martingale property, and one cannot have both.

681012140.40.60.811.21.4Intervals in the partition (log₂)Value of the sum
  • Stratonovich sum
  • Ito sum
  • Quadratic variation
  • W_T²/2 - T/2
Figure 1.1: The two sums for 0tW𝑑W, computed on a single Brownian path that is refined rather than redrawn, so that what changes across the picture is the definition and not the randomness. The Stratonovich sum is exactly Wt2/2 at every resolution, because it telescopes — it obeys the ordinary chain rule. The Itô sum sits half the quadratic variation below it and converges to Wt2/2t/2. The extra t/2 is not an approximation error; it is what Itô’s lemma is about.
Show the model behind this figure (2 functions)
sums_over_pathquant/src/pathwise.rs
/// Both Riemann sums for the integral of `W` against `dW`, and the quadratic
/// variation, over the same path at a given coarseness.
///
/// `w` is a path sampled finely; `stride` says which of its points to use, so
/// that every resolution is a coarsening of one path rather than a new draw.
/// That is the whole point of the comparison: if each resolution used a fresh
/// path, the figure would be showing sampling noise rather than the fact that
/// the two definitions disagree.
pub fn sums_over_path(w: &[f64], t: f64, stride: usize) -> Sums {
    let steps = (w.len() - 1) / stride;
    let mut ito = 0.0;
    let mut strat = 0.0;
    let mut qv = 0.0;

    for i in 0..steps {
        let a = w[i * stride];
        let b = w[(i + 1) * stride];
        let dw = b - a;
        ito += a * dw;
        strat += 0.5 * (a + b) * dw;
        qv += dw * dw;
    }

    let _ = t;
    Sums { steps, ito, stratonovich: strat, quadratic_variation: qv }
}
/// A Brownian path on `[0, t]`, sampled at `steps + 1` points including zero.
pub fn brownian_path(t: f64, steps: usize, seed: u64) -> Vec<f64> {
    let dt = t / steps as f64;
    let sd = dt.sqrt();
    let mut rng = Rng::new(seed);
    let mut w = Vec::with_capacity(steps + 1);
    let mut current = 0.0;
    w.push(0.0);
    for _ in 0..steps {
        current += sd * rng.next_normal();
        w.push(current);
    }
    w
}

Two things in the figure stand out. The Stratonovich sum is not converging to anything — it is already exactly right at thirty-two intervals, and at every coarser and finer resolution, because 12(Wi+1+Wi)(Wi+1Wi)=12(Wi+12Wi2) and the sum collapses. And the quadratic variation converges to t rather than to zero, which is the single fact that makes all of this necessary.

In finance the integrand is usually the quantities of assets in the portfolio and the stochastic process the price of these assets. When re-adjusting the portfolio for a specific time interval we can only use the information available at the beginning of the time interval and therefore using Itô integral would be more appropriate.

Let’s compute expectations and variances of some of the basic Itô Integrals. We assume that the integrand is square-integrable i.e. 0t𝔼[Hs2]𝑑s<. In this case we have

The calculations below are all sums over the dyadic partition of [0,t], and written out in full they do not fit on a page. Two abbreviations fix that and make the structure easier to see. Write

tin=it2n,ΔiW=Wti+1nWtin

for the i-th partition point and the Brownian increment across the i-th interval, so that the step length is ti+1ntin=t/2n. A subscript on an expectation means conditioning on the information available then, so 𝔼tin[]=𝔼[tin].

Calculation 1.17 (Expectation of Itô Integral).
𝔼[0tHs𝑑Ws|0] =𝔼[limni=02n1HtinΔiW|0](by definition)
=limni=02n1𝔼[HtinΔiW|0](by square integrability of Hs)
=limni=02n1𝔼[𝔼[HtinΔiW|tin]|0](iterated conditioning)
=limni=02n1𝔼[Htin𝔼tin[ΔiW]|0](Hs is adapted to s)
=limni=02n1𝔼[Htin0|0](Ws is s Brownian)
=0

By iterated conditioning we also have 𝔼[0tHs𝑑Ws]=𝔼[𝔼[0tHs𝑑Ws|0]]=𝔼[0]=0.

Calculation 1.18 (Covariance of Itô Integral).
𝔼[0tHs𝑑Ws0tKs𝑑Ws|0]
=𝔼[limn,mi,j=02n1,2m1HtinΔiWKjt/2m(W(j+1)t/2mWjt/2m)|0]
(by definition)
=limn,mi,j=02n1,2m1𝔼[HtinΔiWKjt/2m(W(j+1)t/2mWjt/2m)|0]
(by square integrability of Hs)
=limn,mi,j=02n1,2m1𝔼[𝔼[HtinΔiWKjt/2m(W(j+1)t/2mWjt/2m)|max(i,j)t/2n]|0]
(iterated conditioning)
=limni,j=02n1𝔼[𝔼[HtinΔiWKtjnΔjW|max(i,j)t/2n]|0]
(assuming same partition to simplify algebra)
=limni,j=02n1{𝔼[HtinKtjnΔjW𝔼tin[ΔiW]|0]ifi>j𝔼[HtinKtin𝔼tin[(ΔiW)2]|0]ifi=j𝔼[HtinΔiWKtjn𝔼tjn[ΔjW]|0]ifi<j
=limni,j=02n1{𝔼[HtinKtjnΔjW0|0]ifi>j𝔼[HtinKtinVartin[ΔiW]|0]ifi=j𝔼[HtinΔiWKtjn0|0]ifi<j
=limni,j=02n1{0ifij𝔼[HtinKtint/2n|0]ifi=j
=limni=02n1𝔼[HtinKtint/2n|0]
=𝔼[limni=02n1HtinKtint/2n|0]
=𝔼[0tHsKs𝑑s|0](Riemann sum, with t/2n the width)

Before writing down Itô’s Isometry, let’s set up the two spaces it relates, since the statement is about a map between them.

Definition 1.19 (The two spaces).

L2(Ω) is the set of random variables X with finite second moment, 𝔼[X2]<. An element of it is a single random number — the value of something at one moment — and “finite second moment” is the condition that makes its variance meaningful. It is given the inner product

(X,Y)L2(Ω)𝔼[XY].

Lad2([0,T]×Ω) is the set of processes Xs(ω), defined for times s[0,T] and states ωΩ, which are

  • -

    adapted — that is the subscript “ad” — so Xs is s measurable, meaning its value at time s uses only information available by then; and

  • -

    square integrable over both time and chance, 𝔼[0TXs2𝑑s]<.

An element of it is a random function of time — a whole path — and it carries the inner product

(X,Y)Lad2([0,T]×Ω)𝔼[0TXsYs𝑑s].

One contains random numbers, the other random paths, and both are equipped with a notion of length and angle built from an expectation. Adaptedness is doing real work in the second and is not a technical afterthought — it is what rules out an integrand that peeks at the increment it is about to be multiplied by, which is the whole reason the Itô integral has zero mean.

Remark (Itô Isometry).

Taking expectations of the above to remove the conditioning, the result is known as the Itô isometry. Write (X)=0TXs𝑑Ws for the Itô integral over [0,T]. It takes a random path and returns a random number, so it is a map

:Lad2([0,T]×Ω)L2(Ω),

and it preserves the inner product:

((H),(K))L2(Ω)=(H,K)Lad2([0,T]×Ω),

which written out is exactly the calculation above with the conditioning dropped:

𝔼[0THs𝑑Ws0TKs𝑑Ws]=𝔼[0THsKs𝑑s].

In words: the integral carries a random path to a random number without distorting lengths or angles. Two integrands that are orthogonal — meaning 𝔼[HsKs𝑑s]=0 — have uncorrelated integrals, and the size of an integral is the size of its integrand. That is what “isometry” means: a map preserving the geometry, in the way that a rotation of the plane preserves distances.

The isometry is not only a fact about the integral; it is what allows the integral to be defined at all. The argument is worth going through, both because the definition we started from is on shakier ground than it looks and because the same argument is used throughout analysis.

The definition was a limit of sums iHti(Wti+1Wti). For each partition that sum is a perfectly good random variable. But nothing so far says the sequence of them converges as the partition refines, and a sequence of random variables does not converge merely because we would like it to. Something has to force it. The construction goes in three steps.

First, the integrands for which there is nothing to prove. Call a process simple if it is piecewise constant,

Hs=ihi𝕀(ti,ti+1](s),

with each hi already known at time ti. Its integral is not defined by a limit at all; it is declared outright to be the finite sum

(H)=ihi(Wti+1Wti),

and a finite sum of products of random variables raises no questions. The covariance calculation above, applied to two simple processes, is exactly the statement that the isometry holds for these.

Second, approximate. Every HLad2([0,T]×Ω) is a limit of simple processes: there are simple H(n) with H(n)H0 in that space. We would like to define (H) as limn(H(n)) — but that limit has to be shown to exist before it can be used as a definition.

Third, the isometry supplies it. The integral is linear on simple processes, so the difference of two of the approximating integrals is the integral of the difference, and the isometry applies to it:

(H(n))(H(m))L2(Ω)=(H(n)H(m))L2(Ω)=H(n)H(m)Lad2([0,T]×Ω).

The right hand side tends to zero, because a sequence that converges is Cauchy. So the left hand side does too, which says the integrals (H(n)) form a Cauchy sequence in L2(Ω). And L2(Ω) is complete — every Cauchy sequence in it has a limit inside it — so the limit exists. The same estimate shows it does not depend on which approximating sequence was chosen, so the definition is unambiguous.

Remark (What the isometry is doing).

It is a bridge between two things we can measure. On one side we can make the integrands close, because that is how the approximation was built. On the other we need the integrals to be close, because that is what makes the limit exist. The isometry says those are the same statement.

Without an estimate of that kind the approximating integrals could oscillate forever without settling, and there would be no integral to speak of — the definition would not fail to be useful, it would fail to be a definition.

With H=K, the above two results imply

𝔼[0tHs𝑑Ws] = 0
Var[0tHs𝑑Ws] = 𝔼[0tHs2𝑑s].

One key feature of Itô calculus is that the second order differentials are not equivalent to 0. In ordinary calculus we have

0tX(t)(dt)2 limni=02n1X(it/2n)((i+1)t/2nit/2n)2
=limni=02n1X(it/2n)(t/2n)2
max0<s<t(X(s))limni=02n1(t/2n)2
max0<s<t(X(s))tlimni=02n1(t/2n)
=0

In stochastic calculus we can check the expectation and variance of the distribution of the integral:

Calculation 1.20 (Integral of second order time differential).
𝔼[0tXt(dt)2] 𝔼[limni=02n1Xit/2n((i+1)t/2nit/2n)2]
=limni=02n1𝔼[Xit/2n](t/2n)2
max0<s<t(|𝔼[Xs]|)limni=02n1(t/2n)2
max0<s<t(|𝔼[Xs]|)tlimni=02n1(t/2n)
=0

Variance can be similarly computed to be 0 if the stochastic process has finite mean and variance at all times. Therefore the distribution is 0 with probability 1.

However the integral does not necessarily vanish when taken with respect to second order differential of Brownian motion. We have

Calculation 1.21 (Expectation of integral of second order Brownian motion differential).
𝔼[0tHs(dWs)20] =𝔼[limni=02n1HtinΔiW20]
=limni=02n1𝔼[HtinΔiW20]
=limni=02n1𝔼[𝔼[HtinΔiW2tin]0]
=limni=02n1𝔼[Htin𝔼[ΔiW2tin]0]
=limni=02n1𝔼[Htint/2n0]
=𝔼[0tHs𝑑t0]

We therefore have 𝔼[0tHs(dWs)20tHs𝑑t]=0. So the two integrals have same expectation. Let’s see if their difference has any variance.

Calculation 1.22 (Variance of integral of second order Brownian motion differential).
𝔼[(0tHs(dWs)20tHs𝑑t)2|0]
=𝔼[limn(i=02n1Htin(ΔiW2((i+1)t/2nit/2n)))2|0]
=𝔼[limn(i=02n1Htin(ΔiW2t/2n))2|0]
=𝔼[limni,j=02n1HtinHtjn(ΔiW2t/2n)((ΔjW)2t/2n)|0]
=limni,j=02n1𝔼[HtinHtjn(ΔiW2t/2n)((ΔjW)2t/2n)|0]
=limni,j=02n1𝔼[𝔼[HtinHtjn(ΔiW2t/2n)((ΔjW)2t/2n)|max(i,j)t/2n]|0]
=limni,j=02n1{𝔼[HtinHtjn((ΔjW)2t/2n)𝔼[ΔiW2t/2n|tin]|0]ifi>j𝔼[(Htin)2𝔼[(ΔiW2t/2n)2|tin]|0]ifi=j𝔼[HtinHtjn((ΔiW)2t/2n)𝔼[ΔjW2t/2n|tjn]|0]ifi<j
=limni,j=02n1{𝔼[HtinHtjn((ΔjW)2t/2n)0|0]ifi>j𝔼[(Htin)2𝔼[ΔiW4+(t/2n)22(W(i+1)t/2nWit/2n)2t/2n|tin]|0]ifi=j𝔼[HtinHtjn((ΔiW)2t/2n)0|0]ifi<j
=limni,j=02n1{0ifij𝔼[(Htin)2(3(t/2n)2+(t/2n)22(t/2n)2)|0]ifi=j
=limni=02n1𝔼[(Htin)2(2(t/2n)2)|0]
=0t2𝔼[(Hs)2|0](dt)2
=0

We therefore have 𝔼[0tHs(dWs)20tHs𝑑t]=0 and Var[0tHs(dWs)20tHs𝑑t]=0 and therefore (0tHs(dWs)2=0tHs𝑑t)=1 i.e.

0tHs(dWs)2=0tHs𝑑talmost surely
Remark (Itô Differentials).

The above result is also written in differential notation as (dW)2=dt. We can similarly check that dtdW=0 and (dW)3=0. Therefore we have the algebra on differentials:

(dt)2 =0
(dW)2 =dt

The identity (dW)2=dt is a statement about Brownian motion in particular, and chapter 2 needs the corresponding statement for processes that are not Brownian motion. The object it names is the accumulated sum of squared increments, which is what the figure above was plotting.

Definition 1.23 (Quadratic variation).

Let X be a continuous adapted process and let Πn be a sequence of partitions 0=t0n<t1n<<tknn=t of [0,t] whose mesh maxi(ti+1ntin) tends to zero. The quadratic variation of X is

Xt=limni=0kn1(Xti+1nXtin)2,

the limit taken in probability, when it exists and does not depend on the choice of partitions.

For a continuous local martingale the limit always exists. That is the Doob–Meyer decomposition, and stated in full generality — for submartingales, with no continuity assumed — its proof is a long argument about weak compactness. The case these notes use is the one whose proof is short, and it is short because it is the argument that built the Itô integral, run a second time.

Theorem 1.24 (The bracket of a continuous square integrable martingale).

Let M be a continuous martingale with M0=0 and 𝔼[Mt2]< for every t. Then the sums of squared increments converge in L2, so Mt exists. It is continuous, non-decreasing, adapted and zero at the origin; M2M is a martingale; and M is the only process with those properties.

Proof.

Write Qn(t)=i(Mti+1nMtin)2 for the sum over the partition Πn of [0,t]. Everything follows from one piece of algebra. Since b2a2=(ba)2+2a(ba), summing over the partition telescopes the left side and gives

Mt2=Qn(t)+2iMtin(Mti+1nMtin). (1.3)

The last term is a martingale in t for each fixed partition, being a sum of increments each multiplied by a factor known before its increment occurs — the same predictability that gives the Itô integral zero mean. Taking expectations, 𝔼[Qn(t)]=𝔼[Mt2] at every resolution, so the sums are not merely converging to the right object, they have the right expectation all the way along.

That also identifies what Qn is: by (1.3) it is Mt2 minus a discrete stochastic integral of M against itself, so its convergence is the convergence of that integral, which is the construction of the Itô integral and nothing new. Refining the partition changes the integral by an integral of the difference between M and its piecewise-constant approximation, the isometry bounds that in L2 by the size of the approximation error, and continuity of the path drives the error to zero uniformly on [0,t]. So {Qn(t)} is Cauchy in L2; L2 is complete, so the limit exists; and the same bound shows it is independent of the sequence of partitions. Passing to the limit in (1.3) leaves M2M as an L2 limit of martingales, hence a martingale.

The path properties come along with it. Each Qn is non-decreasing in t, and a limit of non-decreasing functions is non-decreasing; adaptedness is inherited term by term; and continuity follows from the same L2 bound, which controls the increase of M across an interval by the oscillation of M on it.

Uniqueness needs no new machinery. If A and A both qualify then AA=(M2A)(M2A) is a difference of martingales, hence a martingale; it is also continuous, zero at the origin, and of finite variation, being a difference of two non-decreasing functions. By the lemma below such a process has zero quadratic variation, and a continuous martingale starting at zero whose bracket vanishes is identically zero. So A=A. ∎

Two things about the scope of that. Localisation extends it from square integrable martingales to local martingales in the usual way — stop at each τn, take the bracket of the stopped process, and observe that the brackets agree where they overlap because each is a limit of the same sums. And it does not require M to be an Itô integral, which matters, because the Cantor-function example below is a martingale it covers and an integral it does not. What we do still need to check is which parts of a process contribute.

Lemma 1.25 (Only the martingale part contributes).

Let A be continuous and of finite variation on [0,t], and let X be continuous with quadratic variation Xt. Then At=0 and X+At=Xt.

Proof.

Write V for the total variation of A on [0,t] and ω(δ) for its modulus of continuity. Then

i(Ati+1nAtin)2maxi|Ati+1nAtin|i|Ati+1nAtin|ω(meshΠn)V,

and A is uniformly continuous on the compact interval, so ω(meshΠn)0. For the second claim expand the square and bound the cross term by Cauchy–Schwarz,

|2i(Xti+1nXtin)(Ati+1nAtin)|2(i(ΔXi)2)1/2(i(ΔAi)2)1/2,

whose second factor tends to zero while the first stays bounded. ∎

So the drift of a diffusion is invisible to X — which is the content of (dt)2=0 and dtdW=0 — and the quadratic variation measures the martingale part alone. For the martingale part itself the two calculations above have already done the work: if Xt=0tHs𝑑Ws then the increments are ΔXiHtiΔWi, and summing their squares is summing Hti2(ΔWi)2, which we showed converges to 0tHs2𝑑s. Hence

Xt=0tHs𝑑WsXt=0tHs2𝑑s. (1.4)

One consequence recurs whenever two candidate martingales have to be shown equal: a continuous local martingale M with M0=0 and M=0 vanishes identically. Indeed M2M=M2 is then a non-negative local martingale, hence a supermartingale, so 𝔼[Mt2]M02=0.

Definition 1.26 (The differential of the quadratic variation).

Since almost every path of X is a continuous non-decreasing function starting at zero, it defines a measure on [0,) by dX((s,u])=XuXs, and 0tHsdXs means the Lebesgue–Stieltjes integral of H against that measure, computed path by path.

Remark (What dXt is and is not).

It is tempting to read dXt as “some multiple of dt”, on the grounds that the only thing a differential in t can be proportional to is dt. Two things hide inside that reading.

First, the multiple is random. For X=H𝑑W, equation (1.4) gives dXt=Ht2dt, and Ht is an adapted process, not a number: the density is a random variable that the path itself determines, and it can depend on the same noise that drives X. That density is exactly what a stochastic volatility model models.

Second, there need not be a multiple at all. A measure carries no obligation to be absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure. Let A be the Cantor function, continuous and non-decreasing with A=0 almost everywhere, and set Mt=BAt for a Brownian motion B. Then M is a continuous martingale in the time-changed filtration with M=A, so its quadratic variation increases while having no density: all of the randomness arrives on a Lebesgue-null set of times. Writing an equation dXt=μtdt+σtdWt rules such a process out. The ansatz is not only a choice of drift and volatility; it is already the assumption that the quadratic variation accumulates at a rate.

What the bracket means has to wait for the theorem that establishes it, which is chapter 2’s: every continuous local martingale turns out to be a Brownian motion watched on a clock, and M is the clock’s reading. Until then it is enough that it measures accumulated randomness, and that a diffusion’s drift contributes none of it.

Two processes have a covariation for the same reason one has a variation.

Definition 1.27 (Covariation).

For continuous adapted X and Y,

X,Yt=limni=0kn1(Xti+1nXtin)(Yti+1nYtin)=14(X+YtXYt),

the second equality being the polarisation identity. It is symmetric and bilinear, and X,X=X.

In differential notation the product of two differentials is the covariation, dXdY=dX,Y, and the algebra of the remark above is the special case

dtdt =0, dWdt =0, dWidWj =ρijdt,

for correlated Brownian motions Wi, since Wi,Wjt=ρijt.

From the ordinary calculus we have the Taylor expansion of a function as

f((x)+𝜹𝒙)=f(𝒙)+f(𝒙)𝜹𝒙+12(𝜹𝒙)Tf′′𝜹𝒙+

where f is the gradient and f′′ is the Hessian. When taking the limit δxdx we often ignore the second and higher order differentials (dx)2,(dx)3, giving the usual chain rule. In stochastic calculus, however, as we have seen second order differentials need not be 0. And we have:

Remark (Itô’s Lemma).
df(𝒙)=f(𝒙)𝒅𝒙+(𝒅𝒙)Tf′′𝒅𝒙 (1.5)

and in the special case when f is a function of t and a stochastic process Xt.

df(t,Xt)=ftdt+fXtdXt+122fXt2(dXt)2

where the second order term is (dXt)2=dXt, so the lemma applies to any continuous process whose quadratic variation exists, and not only to functions of W. When Xt is a Brownian motion Wt we have

df(t,Xt)=(ft+122fWt2)dt+fWtdWt
Definition 1.28 (Itô Diffusion).

An Itô diffusion is a stochastic process satisfying a stochastic differential equation of the form

d𝑿t=𝝁(t,𝑿t)dtdrift+𝝈(t,𝑿t)d𝑾tdiffusion (1.6)

The diffusion coefficient in the equation above is also known as volatility.

A stochastic integral against a Brownian motion always has zero drift, but its expectation can still fail to be constant if the integrand is wild enough, which is why the conclusion is local.

Remark.

An Itô diffusion with zero drift,

d𝑿t=𝝈(t,𝑿t)d𝑾t,

is a local martingale.

Example 1.2 (Geometric Brownian Motion).
dXtXt=μdt+σdWt (1.7)
dlog(Xt) =dXtXt121Xt2(dXt)2(by Itô’s Lemma)
=μdt+σdWt12σ2dt
=(μ12σ2)dt+σdWt
log(Xt)log(X0) =0t(μ12σ2)𝑑s+0tσ𝑑Ws
=(μ12σ2)t+σWt
Xt =X0e(μ12σ2)t+σWt

Because of its simplicity Geometric Brownian Motion has been widely used in finance as a model for evolution of stock prices.

References

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    Protter, P. (2005). Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations. Springer.